Arctic plants react to climate change in unexpected ways

In the tundra, there’s no clear winner

Scientists studying plants in one of the most extreme environments on Earth say the Arctic is indeed changing under the impact of global warming—but not in a uniform way.

Researchers tracked more than 2,000 plant communities over four decades, and found that some species thrived while others declined. Many locations saw new species flourish, while others lost biodiversity.

“Our study sheds light on how climate change is reshaping one of the world’s most fragile ecosystems, which is warming at four times the global average,” said lead author Dr. Mariana García Criado, a postdoctoral researcher in tundra biodiversity at the University of Edinburgh.

“Warmer temperatures are bringing in more species, but not everywhere. Shrubs are reshaping the Arctic ecosystem, but not universally. In other words, while the plant mix is shifting, the overall composition remains in flux. There are no clear winners or losers.”

The research, published today in Nature, spanned 2,174 plots across 45 sites from the Canadian High Arctic to Alaska and Scandinavia. A team of 54 researchers from 50 institutions collaborated on the project, part of the International Tundra Experiment (ITEX).

UBC geography professor Dr. Greg Henry, who helped establish the study’s data collection system, described the research as involving “thousands of hours of fieldwork in remote locations—enduring extreme weather, clouds of biting insects and even the occasional polar bear encounter.”

But, he added, it’s all worth it. “We need to do long-term research to understand the Arctic, as ecosystem change starts with plants. When they change, everything follows—including Arctic animals, local and Indigenous communities, and the global carbon cycle.”

Why it matters

Dr. Isla Myers-Smith, a professor at UBC’s faculty of forestry and the University of Edinburgh, says the study underscores just how unpredictable Arctic change can be. “We’re seeing biodiversity shift in unexpected ways, with some species thriving while others decline,” she explains. “These shifts are reshaping ecosystems in ways we don’t yet fully understand, making it even more urgent to track what’s happening and prepare for the consequences.”

Global collaborations help us understand what’s happening, but Dr. Myers-Smith says, “This isn’t just about tracking change. It’s about acting fast to confront the climate crisis.”

Assignment editors: Please contact lou.bosshart@ubc.ca or jillian.vandergeest@ubc.ca for a copy of the paper or to arrange interviews.

Multimedia assets: Google Drive

Fast Facts

• The research involved an international collaboration of 54 researchers from 50 institutions, led by the University of Edinburgh in collaboration with UBC.
• Scientists compiled more than 42,000 field records from 490 plant samples across 2,174 plots in 45 sites. They tracked over 2,000 plant communities between 1981 and 2022.

Key findings:

• More warmth, more plants: Plant diversity tended to be greater in warmer areas and the southern Arctic. For every 2 C increase in temperature, an additional species was typically found. However, long-term trends didn’t show a consistent increase or decrease, suggesting the relationship between warming and biodiversity is more complex than expected.
• Shrubs are reshaping tundra communities. In areas where shrubs increased, plant diversity often declined, particularly when tall shrubs crowded out smaller plants. However, other types of plants also play a role. Tundra communities dominated by flowering plants tended to support a greater variety of new species, highlighting the varied impacts different plants have on these environments.
• Most sites saw plant turnover and a changing mix of species. Warmer areas and places with stronger warming trends had more species come and go. However, the study did not find evidence that Arctic plant communities are becoming more similar to each other over time.