Vancouver divided on risks of oil tankers

Ricardo Foschi, a retired emeritus professor of civil engineering at UBC, was quoted in the Globe and Mail for a story on oil tankers in Vancouver.

Foschi examined the risk analysis Trans Mountain submitted and questioned the idea that the “return period” for any spill from project-related tankers would be one in 237 years.

“The real question should be (which is not answered by the proponents) ‘What is the chance that a spill of any volume may occur at any time within the operational life of the project?'” he asked. “Mathematically, if the return period is 237 years, then the chance (or probability) of a spill of any size occurring in 50 years (the life of the project) is 19 per cent. Is this safe? Certainly not.”