UBC experts on ‘Super El Niño’: What it could mean for B.C.’s water, forests, glaciers and coast
A powerful El Niño is strengthening in the tropical Pacific, with forecasters warning it could become one of the strongest on record.
UBC experts are available to discuss what a very strong El Niño could mean for B.C. and Canada, from winter weather, flooding and water supplies to glaciers, forests, pests and wildfires.
Dr. Lori Daniels
Professor and Co-Director, Centre for Wildfire Coexistence, Dept. of Forest and Conservation Sciences
“El Niños have historically brought warmer, wetter winters to southern B.C., with more rain than snow and lower snowpacks. Less spring snowmelt can cause forests to dry earlier, contributing to a longer fire season and deeper summer drought. A ‘Super El Niño’ could worsen existing drought conditions in parts of B.C., making early FireSmart preparation particularly important ahead of summer 2027.”
Email: lori.daniels@ubc.ca
Interview languages: English, Spanish
Expertise:
- anticipated impacts of the El Niño on weather
Dr. Jonathan Davies
Professor, Faculty of Forestry and Environmental Stewardship, and Faculty of Science
Email: j.davies@ubc.ca
Interview languages: English
Expertise:
- potential consequences of extreme weather events for tree pests and crop diseases
Dr. Kate Hale
Assistant Professor, Dept. of Geography
“The developing ‘Super El Niño’ is projected to bring unusually mild winter temperatures to B.C., increasing the likelihood that precipitation will fall as rain rather than snow. This could reduce mountain snowpack, trigger earlier snowmelt, and alter seasonal water resource availability.”
Email: kate.hale@ubc.ca
Interview languages: English
Expertise:
- snow and water resources, including mountain snowpacks
* Available by email only this week. Available for the rest of October, particularly on Mondays and Fridays, subject to teaching and advising commitments.
Christopher Harley
(He/Him/His)
Professor, Dept. of Zoology, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries
“Strong El Niños bring warmer waters and higher sea levels to the B.C. coast, sometimes drawing marine species normally found farther south. But warmer conditions and reduced ocean productivity can harm local species: kelp has declined during past El Niños, while marine mammals and seabirds can face food shortages, starvation and breeding failures.”
Email: harley@zoology.ubc.ca
Interview languages: English
Expertise:
- coastal marine ecosystems, including the impacts of warm winters and sea-level rise, all of which can be affected by a strong El Niño
Dr. Brian Hunt
Associate Professor, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries
“El Niños shift the plankton food webs that many species depend on. We can expect fewer zooplankton of lower nutritional quality in 2027, so poor foraging conditions for juvenile salmon at the critical time when they first enter the ocean in the spring.” Email: b.hunt@oceans.ubc.ca
Interview languages: English
Expertise:
- land-sea interface, marine ecosystems, salmon
* Unavailable Oct. 16, 26-30
Dr. John Richardson, PhD
(He/Him/His)
Professor, Biodiversity Research Centre, Dept. of Forest and Conservation Sciences
“Warmer temperatures could mean less snow cover and a smaller winter snowpack, affecting everything from when bears enter and emerge from hibernation to streamflow for fish and other aquatic species.”
Tel: 604-822-6586
Email: john.richardson@ubc.ca
Interview languages: English
Expertise:
- endangered species and species at risk
- freshwater
- wildlife conservation
- ecology
- populations
- ecosystems
- invertebrates
* Available until Oct. 18
Dr. Sean Smukler, PhD
Associate Professor, Applied Biology & Soil Science and Director of the Centre for Sustainable Food Systems at UBC Farm
Email: sean.smukler@ubc.ca
Interview languages: English
Expertise:
- flooding and drought impacts on agriculture
